BetBoom Dacha · BO5
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 3:1series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 3:1
TSMloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 47 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 40 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 40 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 38 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 35 games
Disruptorsignature
Seleri · 35 games
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 32 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 31 game
TSM
Rubick
Ari · 43 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 31 game
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 17 games
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 17 games
Lycansignature
kasane · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
bryle- · 15 games
Disruptor
Whitemon · 14 games
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
393 picks · 188 bans
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 441 bans
Undying
264 picks · 448 bans
Techies
256 picks · 204 bans
Morphling
244 picks · 446 bans
Batrider
241 picks · 400 bans
Storm Spirit
239 picks · 410 bans
Pangolier
230 picks · 443 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 35%
Hero pool strength58% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total88% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:13
Gaimin Gladiators 74%TSM 26%
The model gave 74% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 25:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorAce
TerrorbladeTimado
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Primal Beastbryle-
PangolierQuinn
Brewmasterkasane
EarthshakertOfu
GrimstrokeAri
Vengeful SpiritSeleri
WarlockWhitemon
Game 2prediction correct29:22
Gaimin Gladiators 76%TSM 24%
The model gave 76% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 41:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerdyrachyo
BloodseekerTimado
PangolierQuinn
Ember Spiritbryle-
Lone DruidAce
Death Prophetkasane
EarthshakertOfu
RubickAri
Vengeful SpiritSeleri
WarlockWhitemon
Game 3prediction missed43:43
Gaimin Gladiators 73%TSM 27%
The model gave 73% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by TSM in 50:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BrewmasterAce
Lycankasane
Bristlebackdyrachyo
SlarkTimado
Void SpiritQuinn
Invokerbryle-
Shadow DemontOfu
WarlockAri
GrimstrokeSeleri
DisruptorWhitemon
Game 4prediction correct26:7
Gaimin Gladiators 74%TSM 26%
The model gave 74% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 23:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladedyrachyo
MorphlingTimado
LeshracQuinn
Razorbryle-
BrewmasterAce
Lycankasane
IoSeleri
Vengeful SpiritAri
BanetOfu
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 88%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4