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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 14 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 12 games
75%
Bane
Banesignature
tOfu · 11 games
73%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 9 games
89%
Weaver
Weaversignature
tOfu · 9 games
78%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
BOOM · 7 games
57%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 7 games
86%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
BOOM · 7 games
71%

Tundra Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 15 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 14 games
86%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 13 games
85%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 11 games
82%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 10 games
80%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Nine · 10 games
90%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Nine · 9 games
78%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
532 picks · 380 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
457 picks · 648 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
429 picks · 519 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
413 picks · 853 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
353 picks · 180 bans
44%
Kunkka
Kunkka
332 picks · 533 bans
54%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
332 picks · 520 bans
52%
Wraith King
Wraith King
268 picks · 300 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 70%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:9
Gaimin Gladiators 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassindyrachyo
55% · 195 games47% · 203 games
LinaNine
Lina
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainBOOM
52% · 263 games43% · 162 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Broodmother
BroodmotherAce
51% · 55 games49% · 90 games
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Disruptor
DisruptortOfu
46% · 193 games53% · 54 games
JakiroSneyking
Jakiro
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSeleri
45% · 47 games58% · 244 games
BaneFata
Bane
Game 2prediction missed35:10
Gaimin Gladiators 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razordyrachyo
52% · 130 games46% · 240 games
Death ProphetNine
Death Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBOOM
48% · 159 games54% · 215 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
52% · 216 games42% · 136 games
Doom33
Doom
Io
IoSeleri
61% · 154 games57% · 244 games
WeaverSneyking
Weaver
Grimstroke
GrimstroketOfu
42% · 221 game46% · 45 games
Crystal MaidenFata
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 62%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2