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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 58 games
74%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 46 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 42 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 41 game
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 36 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 36 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 33 games
70%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 33 games
64%

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 42 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 35 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 34 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 31 game
65%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 30 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 28 games
57%
Techies
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 25 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nine · 24 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
643 picks · 689 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
522 picks · 337 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
441 picks · 939 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
432 picks · 928 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
410 picks · 856 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
393 picks · 875 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
383 picks · 448 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
382 picks · 992 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total61% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:23
Gaimin Gladiators 58%Tundra Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 58:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingdyrachyo
50% · 328 games51% · 224 games
UrsaSkiter
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawQuinn
50% · 296 games49% · 479 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Underlord
UnderlordAce
52% · 182 games53% · 492 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Mirana
MiranatOfu
55% · 452 games46% · 460 games
EnchantressAui_2000
Enchantress
Rubick
RubickSeleri
46% · 790 games48% · 393 games
TechiesSneyking
Techies
Game 2prediction missed4:27
Gaimin Gladiators 55%Tundra Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerdyrachyo
45% · 137 games48% · 148 games
Faceless VoidSkiter
Faceless Void
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
54% · 394 games50% · 139 games
Visage33
Visage
Timbersaw
TimbersawQuinn
55% · 263 games52% · 371 game
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Lion
LiontOfu
52% · 86 games49% · 26 games
Ancient ApparitionAui_2000
Ancient Apparition
Undying
UndyingSeleri
45% · 440 games49% · 636 games
RubickSneyking
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct28:30
Gaimin Gladiators 57%Tundra Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 1:01:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusadyrachyo
58% · 134 games44% · 170 games
Spirit BreakerSneyking
Spirit Breaker
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
50% · 303 games52% · 134 games
Queen of PainNine
Queen of Pain
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAce
54% · 89 games49% · 263 games
BroodmotherSkiter
Broodmother
Snapfire
SnapfiretOfu
48% · 241 game48% · 374 games
Batrider33
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorSeleri
53% · 191 game35% · 17 games
Ancient ApparitionAui_2000
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 61%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3