ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 20 games
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 19 games
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 17 games
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 14 games
Batridersignature
tOfu · 13 games
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
Tundra Esports
Techiessignature
9Class · 40 games
Rubicksignature
9Class · 29 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 26 games
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 21 game
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 17 games
Batridersignature
9Class · 16 games
Snipersignature
Topson · 16 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 203 bans
Batrider
446 picks · 830 bans
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 666 bans
Tiny
435 picks · 593 bans
Rubick
411 picks · 176 bans
Pangolier
390 picks · 702 bans
Mars
384 picks · 621 bans
Techies
381 picks · 296 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total55% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:30
Gaimin Gladiators 52%Tundra Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
LunaPure~
Void SpiritQuinn
SniperTopson
MagnusAce
BrewmasterTobi
TinytOfu
ClockwerkWhitemon
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Shadow Demon9Class
Game 2prediction missed11:33
Gaimin Gladiators 52%Tundra Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Rangerdyrachyo
MorphlingPure~
Keeper of the LightQuinn
SniperTopson
MagnusAce
LycanTobi
BatriderSeleri
Rubick9Class
TinytOfu
ClockwerkWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 55%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2