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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Sniper
Sniper
Quinn · 25 games
56%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 23 games
78%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 20 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 19 games
63%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 18 games
72%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 17 games
41%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Ace · 17 games
65%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 16 games
81%

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 39 games
64%
Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 33 games
76%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 30 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 30 games
53%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 29 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 26 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 26 games
73%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
399 picks · 363 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
379 picks · 412 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 538 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
304 picks · 529 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
299 picks · 661 bans
52%
Sven
Sven
296 picks · 309 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
294 picks · 618 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total53% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:31
Gaimin Gladiators 48%Tundra Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperQuinn
53% · 64 games44% · 281 game
Dragon KnightPure~
Dragon Knight
Windranger
Windrangerdyrachyo
52% · 235 games52% · 72 games
Sand KingTopson
Sand King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
50% · 377 games50% · 258 games
MarsRAMZES666
Mars
Chen
ChenSeleri
59% · 114 games46% · 255 games
EnchantressWhitemon
Enchantress
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemontOfu
49% · 252 games44% · 176 games
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed29:13
Gaimin Gladiators 47%Tundra Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 30:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordAce
42% · 80 games53% · 181 game
WindrangerPure~
Windranger
Lone Druid
Lone Druiddyrachyo
34% · 28 games54% · 205 games
BatriderTopson
Batrider
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
49% · 397 games56% · 152 games
MarsRAMZES666
Mars
Mirana
MiranatOfu
48% · 189 games49% · 104 games
SnapfireSaksa
Snapfire
Marci
MarciSeleri
48% · 127 games60% · 179 games
Shadow DemonWhitemon
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed47:31
Gaimin Gladiators 49%Tundra Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 1:09:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdyrachyo
53% · 107 games58% · 84 games
SlarkPure~
Slark
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainQuinn
47% · 63 games61% · 72 games
Sand KingTopson
Sand King
Underlord
UnderlordAce
51% · 69 games48% · 167 games
DoomRAMZES666
Doom
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
46% · 211 games38% · 127 games
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Batrider
BatridertOfu
48% · 218 games50% · 218 games
Shadow DemonWhitemon
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 53%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3