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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 24 games
58%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
56%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Quinn · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
46%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 12 games
58%

Tundra Esports

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 31 game
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 27 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 23 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
70%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
482 picks · 406 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
449 picks · 567 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
418 picks · 522 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
412 picks · 222 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
407 picks · 681 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
402 picks · 450 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 590 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
354 picks · 919 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:35
Gaimin Gladiators 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWatson
45% · 334 games50% · 143 games
Nature's Prophetbzm
Nature's Prophet
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainQuinn
49% · 102 games53% · 196 games
Magnusdyrachyo
Magnus
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
48% · 106 games49% · 277 games
Doom33
Doom
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
44% · 342 games65% · 156 games
ChenWhitemon
Chen
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSeleri
49% · 332 games49% · 444 games
BatriderSaksa
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct15:32
Gaimin Gladiators 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
50% · 119 games55% · 91 game
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Lifestealer
Void Spirit
Void SpiritQuinn
49% · 89 games50% · 189 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Sand King
Sand KingAce
52% · 107 games52% · 160 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Zeus
ZeustOfu
39% · 53 games54% · 45 games
LichWhitemon
Lich
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
47% · 117 gameslittle data
RikiSaksa
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2