Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 58 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 43 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 40 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 39 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 36 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 36 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 32 games
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 31 game
Xtreme Gaming
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 22 games
Miranasignature
Dy · 19 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 18 games
Rubick
Kaka · 17 games
Doomsignature
JT- · 14 games
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 13 games
Lion
Kaka · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
Paparazi · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
639 picks · 687 bans
Rubick
514 picks · 338 bans
Doom
449 picks · 971 bans
Batrider
416 picks · 927 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 860 bans
Void Spirit
390 picks · 351 bans
Beastmaster
384 picks · 1002 bans
Pugna
382 picks · 448 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:17
Gaimin Gladiators 75%Xtreme Gaming 25%
The model gave 75% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 35:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawQuinn
Drow RangerGhost
Svendyrachyo
Ember SpiritPaparazi
UnderlordAce
Legion CommanderJT-
EnchantressSeleri
Skywrath MageXinQ
RubicktOfu
UndyingDy
Game 2prediction correct31:19
Gaimin Gladiators 73%Xtreme Gaming 27%
The model gave 73% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassindyrachyo
AlchemistGhost
BroodmotherAce
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Ember SpiritQuinn
MarsJT-
MiranatOfu
RubickXinQ
UndyingSeleri
Crystal MaidenDy
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 88%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2