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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 27 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 15 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Watson · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 15 games
60%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 14 games
43%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Quinn · 14 games
57%

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
BoBoKa · 27 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 20 games
65%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 18 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 17 games
71%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
69%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
501 picks · 676 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
477 picks · 408 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
467 picks · 594 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
462 picks · 569 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 527 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
431 picks · 797 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
418 picks · 940 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:27
Gaimin Gladiators 57%Yakult Brothers 43%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 29:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightWatson
49% · 106 games48% · 274 games
GyrocopterAme
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
46% · 393 games51% · 400 games
TinyEmo
Tiny
Underlord
UnderlordAce
54% · 90 games55% · 48 games
Lycanzeal
Lycan
Lion
LiontOfu
48% · 208 games56% · 126 games
Elder Titan天命
Elder Titan
Io
IoSeleri
43% · 66 games56% · 15 games
RikiBoBoKa
Riki
Game 2prediction missed6:30
Gaimin Gladiators 57%Yakult Brothers 43%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 29:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
48% · 138 games59% · 78 games
TidehunterAme
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinyQuinn
53% · 304 games53% · 211 games
InvokerEmo
Invoker
Broodmother
BroodmotherAce
53% · 72 games53% · 122 games
Sand Kingzeal
Sand King
Zeus
ZeusSeleri
40% · 77 games51% · 396 games
Clockwerk天命
Clockwerk
Dark Willow
Dark WillowtOfu
39% · 233 games49% · 17 games
RikiBoBoKa
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 69%
Series resultYakult Brothers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2