ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Underlordsignature
Ace · 23 games
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 20 games
Chensignature
Seleri · 18 games
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 17 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
Invokersignature
Quinn · 15 games
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 14 games
Sniperoften banned
tOfu · 14 games
Zero Tenacity
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 4 games
Tuskoften banned
LeBronDota · 4 games
Batrider
Thiolicor · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 3 games
Lion
Thiolicor · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
457 picks · 612 bans
Clockwerk
392 picks · 426 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 475 bans
Luna
333 picks · 417 bans
Enchantress
314 picks · 603 bans
Dark Willow
306 picks · 167 bans
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 352 bans
Sand King
274 picks · 800 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:10
Gaimin Gladiators 74%Zero Tenacity 26%
The model gave 74% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 22:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingWatson
GyrocopterDaaD-
TerrorbladeAce
Queen of PainStojkov
Storm SpiritQuinn
Primal BeastMikSa`
MuertatOfu
BatriderThiolicor
ChenSeleri
Dark WillowLeBronDota
Game 2prediction correct
Gaimin Gladiators 89%Zero Tenacity 11%
The model gave 89% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 89%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2