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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galactic Aliensloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bramewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Galactic Aliens

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Muka · 5 games
60%
Bane
Bane
HappyDyurara · 3 games
67%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Munkushi~ · 3 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
HappyDyurara · 2 games
50%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Munkushi~ · 2 games
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
illusion · 2 games
0%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
HappyDyurara · 2 games
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
HappyDyurara · 1 game
0%

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
50%
Axe
Axesignature
SkyLark · 10 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 9 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
44%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
SsaSpartan · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
351 picks · 176 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
297 picks · 108 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
262 picks · 413 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
259 picks · 506 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
256 picks · 350 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
238 picks · 333 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
224 picks · 235 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
221 picks · 472 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Galactic Aliens
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:35
Galactic Aliens 46%Brame 54%
The model gave 54% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 27:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerMunkushi~
52% · 55 games52% · 13 games
UrsaNefrit
Ursa
Silencer
SilencerHappyDyurara
48% · 25 games52% · 19 games
WindrangerW1sh-
Windranger
Night Stalker
Night StalkerMuka
43% · 54 games48% · 31 game
BeastmasterSkyLark
Beastmaster
55% · 45 games
Shadow DemonCTOMAHEH1
Shadow Demon
53% · 26 games
BaneSsaSpartan
Bane
Game 2prediction correct33:47
Galactic Aliens 45%Brame 55%
The model gave 55% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 47:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMunkushi~
53% · 59 gameslittle data
TinkerW1sh-
Tinker
Weaver
WeaverMuka
57% · 32 games58% · 12 games
Vengeful SpiritNefrit
Vengeful Spirit
Abaddon
AbaddonHappyDyurara
44% · 94 games51% · 137 games
MarsSkyLark
Mars
39% · 12 games
Skywrath MageCTOMAHEH1
Skywrath Mage
47% · 24 games
BaneSsaSpartan
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 57%
Series resultBrame 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2