Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs predictionGAGalactic Alienswin 2:0
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Khanloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Galactic Aliens
Monkey Kingoften banned
Muka · 6 games
Bane
HappyDyurara · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Munkushi~ · 3 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Munkushi~ · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
HappyDyurara · 3 games
Svenoften banned
Munkushi~ · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Munkushi~ · 3 games
Disruptor
HappyDyurara · 2 games
Khan
Batridersignature
pJonn · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
Dodren · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 4 games
Bane
antoha · 3 games
Dark Willow
goddam · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 3 games
Marsoften banned
antoha · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
344 picks · 177 bans
Hoodwink
286 picks · 103 bans
Mars
272 picks · 415 bans
Lina
267 picks · 535 bans
Pangolier
264 picks · 366 bans
Luna
238 picks · 337 bans
Shadow Demon
235 picks · 245 bans
Nyx Assassin
216 picks · 462 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Khan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Khan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:14
Galactic Aliens 38%Khan 62%
The model gave 62% on Khan — the game was taken by Galactic Aliens in 30:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Troll Warlordlayme
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
BatriderDodren
TinyRodjER
EarthshakerpJonn
AbaddonHappyDyurara
Skywrath Magegoddam
43% · 46 games
Undyingantoha
Game 2prediction missed35:34
Galactic Aliens 39%Khan 61%
The model gave 61% on Khan — the game was taken by Galactic Aliens in 45:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaMunkushi~
Morphlinglayme
Void Spiritkiyotaka
LinaDodren
EnchantressHappyDyurara
BrewmasterpJonn
LionRodjER
Rubickgoddam
50% · 147 games
Elder Titanantoha
Model check result
Model favoriteKhan · 70%
Series resultGalactic Aliens 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2