Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs predictionGAGalactic Alienswin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Qqwerty44loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Galactic Aliens
No games played over 6 months.
qwerty44
Invokeroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 5 games
Clinkzoften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
Omniknightoften banned
Fezor · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 3 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Fezor · 3 games
Bane
Fezor · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
372 picks · 178 bans
Hoodwink
340 picks · 122 bans
Lina
271 picks · 487 bans
Luna
252 picks · 342 bans
Nyx Assassin
250 picks · 529 bans
Mars
249 picks · 418 bans
Pangolier
243 picks · 317 bans
Terrorblade
236 picks · 488 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 31%
Hero pool strength60% Galactic Aliens
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Galactic Aliens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:23
Galactic Aliens 52%qwerty44 48%
The model gave 52% on Galactic Aliens — the game was taken by Galactic Aliens in 38:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerMunkushi~
JuggernautKom4rt
Monkey KingMuka
InvokerUSHUSHUSH
SilencerHappyDyurara
BaneFezor
Game 2prediction correct13:14
Galactic Aliens 53%qwerty44 47%
The model gave 53% on Galactic Aliens — the game was taken by Galactic Aliens in 20:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
DawnbreakerUSHUSHUSH
Elder TitanMuka
BloodseekerKom4rt
SilencerHappyDyurara
EnchantressFezor
Model check result
Model favoriteGalactic Aliens · 53%
Series resultGalactic Aliens 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2