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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galactic Aliensloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Winstrike Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Galactic Aliens

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
HappyDyurara · 2 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Muka · 1 game
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Muka · 1 game
100%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Munkushi~ · 1 game
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Munkushi~ · 1 game
100%

Winstrike Team

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Panto · 13 games
38%
Lina
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
54%
Mars
Marssignature
chshrct · 13 games
62%
Lion
Lion
yamich · 12 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenix
yamich · 12 games
33%
Axe
Axeoften banned
chshrct · 11 games
18%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 10 games
40%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
yamich · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
365 picks · 177 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
334 picks · 121 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
270 picks · 496 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
255 picks · 426 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
252 picks · 344 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
249 picks · 329 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
247 picks · 520 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
234 picks · 486 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength63% Galactic Aliens
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:40
Galactic Aliens 41%Winstrike Team 59%
The model gave 59% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 41:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingMunkushi~
59% · 96 games43% · 59 games
Spectredyrachyo
Spectre
Lina
Linakiyotaka
53% · 111 games53% · 57 games
Night Stalkerchshrct
Night Stalker
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonillusion
56% · 72 games43% · 90 games
Sand Kingmellojul
Sand King
Phoenix
PhoenixHappyDyurara
47% · 147 games42% · 86 games
Elder Titanyamich
Elder Titan
50% · 134 games
SnapfirePanto
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed37:28
Galactic Aliens 43%Winstrike Team 57%
The model gave 57% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Galactic Aliens in 39:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMunkushi~
60% · 106 games38% · 87 games
Gyrocopterdyrachyo
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
49% · 81 game54% · 105 games
Tidehunterchshrct
Tidehunter
Snapfire
Snapfireillusion
49% · 122 games49% · 47 games
Sand Kingmellojul
Sand King
Bane
BaneHappyDyurara
55% · 43 games47% · 24 games
Ogre MagiPanto
Ogre Magi
48% · 89 games
Elder Titanyamich
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct17:52
Galactic Aliens 41%Winstrike Team 59%
The model gave 59% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMunkushi~
59% · 104 games46% · 23 games
Slarkdyrachyo
Slark
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
46% · 105 games51% · 52 games
Sand Kingmellojul
Sand King
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageillusion
44% · 17 games57% · 63 games
Bloodseekerchshrct
Bloodseeker
Night Stalker
Night StalkerHappyDyurara
47% · 45 games46% · 115 games
Lionyamich
Lion
43% · 18 games
Ogre MagiPanto
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 65%
Series resultWinstrike Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3