Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gamax Esportswin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AAdoNisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gamax Esports
Hoodwink
Nagato · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
Clockwerk
Nagato · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Nagato · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
AdoNis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
383 picks · 354 bans
Centaur Warrunner
347 picks · 538 bans
Vengeful Spirit
343 picks · 339 bans
Mars
328 picks · 503 bans
Techies
317 picks · 252 bans
Batrider
306 picks · 595 bans
Hoodwink
301 picks · 182 bans
Tiny
291 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% AdoNis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% AdoNis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed55:22
Gamax Esports 41%AdoNis 59%
The model gave 59% on AdoNis — the game was taken by Gamax Esports in 31:18.
Game 2prediction missed45:17
Gamax Esports 41%AdoNis 59%
The model gave 59% on AdoNis — the game was taken by Gamax Esports in 24:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteAdoNis · 59%
Series resultGamax Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2