Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gambit Esportsloss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gambit Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Virtus.pro
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 13 games
Banesignature
Save- · 11 games
Earthshaker
DM · 8 games
Iosignature
1ls · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 8 games
Abaddonsignature
1ls · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 7 games
Pucksignature
gpK~ · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
445 picks · 266 bans
Queen of Pain
373 picks · 498 bans
Mars
368 picks · 508 bans
Weaver
351 picks · 482 bans
Kunkka
282 picks · 493 bans
Death Prophet
281 picks · 424 bans
Grimstroke
262 picks · 181 bans
Ember Spirit
256 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:32
Gambit Esports 39%Virtus.pro 61%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:13.
Game 2prediction correct26:33
Gambit Esports 39%Virtus.pro 61%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:59.
Game 3prediction correct35:12
Gambit Esports 39%Virtus.pro 61%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 61%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3