Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Gambit Esportswin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gambit Esports
Enigmaoften banned
Blizzy · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
xannii · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Aoharide · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 1 game
Earth Spirit
xsvampire · 1 game
Earthshaker
xsvampire · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 1 game
Mirana
xsvampire · 1 game
VP.Prodigy
Troll Warlordsignature
Noticed · 11 games
Undyingoften banned
dSa · 11 games
Rubick
forcemajor · 10 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Larl · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dSa · 7 games
Earth Spirit
forcemajor · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 5 games
Oracleoften banned
dSa · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
313 picks · 634 bans
Void Spirit
290 picks · 363 bans
Mars
254 picks · 434 bans
Earth Spirit
237 picks · 189 bans
Rubick
206 picks · 107 bans
Nyx Assassin
202 picks · 612 bans
Keeper of the Light
197 picks · 394 bans
Phoenix
197 picks · 232 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 30%
Hero pool strength54% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:27
Gambit Esports 49%VP.Prodigy 51%
The model gave 51% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingLorenof
Drow RangerNoticed
Void Spiritxannii
Death ProphetLarl
Outworld DestroyerBlizzy
Clockwerkforcemajor
Pudgexsvampire
AbaddondSa
Ancient ApparitionAoharide
Game 2prediction correct26:8
Gambit Esports 52%VP.Prodigy 48%
The model gave 52% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Gambit Esports in 26:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Magexannii
BloodseekerNoticed
Death ProphetLorenof
RazorLarl
Nature's ProphetBlizzy
GrimstrokedSa
EnchantressAoharide
Clockwerkforcemajor
Earthshakerxsvampire
Game 3prediction missed30:13
Gambit Esports 48%VP.Prodigy 52%
The model gave 52% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by Gambit Esports in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingxannii
Death ProphetLarl
PuckLorenof
Monkey KingNoticed
MarsBlizzy
Tuskforcemajor
Earth Spiritxsvampire
AbaddondSa
Shadow DemonAoharide
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 50%
Series resultGambit Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3