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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 20 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 19 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 19 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
RCY · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Bignum · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Speeed · 15 games
67%

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 33 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 28 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 27 games
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 26 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Rein · 20 games
60%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
667 picks · 785 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
548 picks · 527 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
498 picks · 410 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
456 picks · 315 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1120 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 602 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 800 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
389 picks · 310 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:22
GamerLegion 45%1w Team 55%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 46:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterRCY
40% · 279 games68% · 11 games
Meepov1olent-
Meepo
Viper
ViperGhost
53% · 94 games56% · 187 games
Sand KingSquad1x
Sand King
Slardar
SlardarFayde
59% · 231 game50% · 207 games
Tidehunterмистер мораль
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBignum
50% · 206 games47% · 79 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSpeeed
46% · 75 games45% · 401 game
WarlockRein
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct19:30
GamerLegion 44%1w Team 56%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 43:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidGhost
49% · 54 games59% · 178 games
Naga Sirenv1olent-
Naga Siren
Pangolier
PangolierRCY
40% · 198 games53% · 189 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
45% · 209 games50% · 385 games
Batriderмистер мораль
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorBignum
48% · 260 games53% · 68 games
RubickRein
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSpeeed
52% · 193 games52% · 94 games
Largoswedenstrong
Largo
Game 3prediction missed26:4
GamerLegion 44%1w Team 56%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 31:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistGhost
48% · 41 game62% · 42 games
Naga Sirenv1olent-
Naga Siren
Kez
KezRCY
45% · 98 games51% · 176 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFayde
43% · 72 games58% · 66 games
Timbersawмистер мораль
Timbersaw
Venomancer
VenomancerSpeeed
43% · 41 game61% · 18 games
Largoswedenstrong
Largo
Bane
BaneBignum
56% · 174 games43% · 124 games
RingmasterRein
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 55%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3