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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionwin 2:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 25 games
44%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Speeed · 24 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bignum · 20 games
35%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Speeed · 19 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
RCY · 17 games
41%
Kez
Kezoften banned
RCY · 16 games
56%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Fayde · 15 games
40%

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 40 games
48%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Whitemon · 20 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 19 games
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
мистер мораль · 18 games
56%
Kez
Kezsignature
Pure~ · 18 games
72%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
495 picks · 293 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
376 picks · 168 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
370 picks · 161 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 486 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
310 picks · 309 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
298 picks · 276 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 479 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
270 picks · 366 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% GamerLegion
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total65% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:12
GamerLegion 45%1w Team 55%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 36:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTimado
54% · 195 games50% · 76 games
LifestealerShad
Lifestealer
Snapfire
SnapfireRCY
46% · 332 games56% · 135 games
Doom33
Doom
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFayde
51% · 83 games50% · 245 games
Dragon Knightbzm
Dragon Knight
Dazzle
DazzleSpeeed
50% · 144 games42% · 173 games
Dark WillowAri
Dark Willow
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterBignum
57% · 72 games45% · 197 games
DisruptorWhitemon
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct38:39
GamerLegion 43%1w Team 57%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:08:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenTimado
44% · 62 games51% · 111 games
Nature's Prophetbzm
Nature's Prophet
Tidehunter
TidehunterFayde
58% · 130 games43% · 3 games
Chaos KnightShad
Chaos Knight
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerRCY
43% · 14 games54% · 75 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Silencer
SilencerSpeeed
38% · 45 games55% · 58 games
Spirit BreakerAri
Spirit Breaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
40% · 145 games59% · 149 games
RingmasterWhitemon
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction missed34:12
GamerLegion 41%1w Team 59%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 36:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTimado
42% · 99 games51% · 131 game
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritRCY
51% · 159 games56% · 62 games
Necrophos33
Necrophos
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
54% · 54 games49% · 81 game
SvenShad
Sven
Dazzle
DazzleSpeeed
54% · 73 games56% · 67 games
Spirit BreakerAri
Spirit Breaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
41% · 131 game51% · 175 games
WarlockWhitemon
Warlock
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 65%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3