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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 23 games
52%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 23 games
70%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 21 game
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
RCY · 21 game
67%

Heroic

Jakiro
Jakiro
Thiolicor · 35 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 29 games
28%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 25 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 23 games
61%
Viper
Viperoften banned
TaiLung · 22 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 21 game
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 18 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
607 picks · 556 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
523 picks · 410 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
464 picks · 525 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
463 picks · 412 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
458 picks · 230 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
398 picks · 245 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1021 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 899 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% GamerLegion
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total62% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:31
GamerLegion 46%Heroic 54%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 41:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyGhost
50% · 267 games54% · 172 games
LifestealerYuma
Lifestealer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
52% · 198 games49% · 430 games
BeastmasterTaiLung
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordFayde
58% · 140 games49% · 209 games
DoomWisper
Doom
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBignum
50% · 167 games47% · 11 games
ZeusKJ
Zeus
Phoenix
PhoenixSpeeed
50% · 122 games40% · 72 games
GrimstrokeThiolicor
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct19:38
GamerLegion 42%Heroic 58%
The model gave 58% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 44:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomGhost
53% · 153 games51% · 524 games
TinyYuma
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
49% · 316 games46% · 247 games
Sand KingTaiLung
Sand King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainRCY
50% · 199 games47% · 203 games
KunkkaWisper
Kunkka
Phoenix
PhoenixSpeeed
53% · 172 games52% · 64 games
GrimstrokeThiolicor
Grimstroke
Tusk
TuskBignum
46% · 407 games55% · 209 games
RubickKJ
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 62%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2