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BLAST Slam VI · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionwin 2:1
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 16 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Speeed · 15 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 11 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 11 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 11 games
36%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Speeed · 10 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
RCY · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 9 games
22%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 66 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 53 games
55%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 47 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 46 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 41 game
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 36 games
72%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 34 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
616 picks · 949 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 439 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
488 picks · 641 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
474 picks · 635 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
440 picks · 961 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 661 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 543 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
395 picks · 243 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total78% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:8
GamerLegion 35%MOUZ 65%
The model gave 65% on MOUZ — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezYamSun
55% · 81 game54% · 144 games
MuertaCrystallis
Muerta
Underlord
UnderlordFayde
48% · 220 games50% · 296 games
Ember SpiritMidOne
Ember Spirit
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendRCY
52% · 234 games45% · 365 games
TinyBOOM
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockSpeeed
49% · 596 games47% · 508 games
JakiroSeleri
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBignum
55% · 347 games46% · 165 games
Windrangeryamich
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct16:34
GamerLegion 33%MOUZ 67%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckRCY
52% · 442 games52% · 170 games
UnderlordBOOM
Underlord
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
46% · 328 games58% · 95 games
ViperMidOne
Viper
Clinkz
ClinkzYamSun
65% · 79 games47% · 429 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Warlock
WarlockSpeeed
46% · 455 games49% · 310 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
46% · 250 games44% · 550 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed42:11
GamerLegion 33%MOUZ 67%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Omniknight
OmniknightYamSun
50% · 16 games51% · 195 games
Shadow FiendMidOne
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
47% · 225 games62% · 80 games
ClinkzCrystallis
Clinkz
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
43% · 230 games52% · 181 game
UnderlordBOOM
Underlord
Chen
ChenSpeeed
52% · 149 games51% · 387 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Jakiro
JakiroBignum
45% · 313 games52% · 90 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 78%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3