ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GamerLegion
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 20 games
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 19 games
Warlock
Speeed · 19 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 17 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 17 games
Clockwerk
Bignum · 14 games
Batridersignature
Speeed · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 13 games
PARIVISION
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
9Class · 19 games
Slardaroften banned
No[o]ne · 18 games
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
Void Spirit
No[o]ne · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
665 picks · 826 bans
Tiny
578 picks · 593 bans
Tusk
472 picks · 415 bans
Warlock
471 picks · 320 bans
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1082 bans
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 695 bans
Shadow Fiend
386 picks · 998 bans
Mars
383 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:25
GamerLegion 34%PARIVISION 66%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 38:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerRCY
UrsaSatanic
WeaverShad
BeastmasterNo[o]ne
UnderlordFayde
MarsSSS
WarlockSpeeed
Batrider9Class
TuskBignum
PhoenixDukalis
Game 2prediction missed23:22
GamerLegion 37%PARIVISION 63%
The model gave 63% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 40:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerRCY
LunaSatanic
Shadow FiendShad
PangolierNo[o]ne
UnderlordFayde
ChenDukalis
TinyBignum
BatriderSSS
Shadow DemonSpeeed
Shadow Shaman9Class
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 79%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2