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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Peru Rejectswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 15 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Speeed · 11 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 10 games
30%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Speeed · 8 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 8 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Fayde · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Bignum · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 7 games
86%

Peru Rejects

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Elmisho · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 13 games
69%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
DarkMago · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 12 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
556 picks · 912 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
528 picks · 403 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
484 picks · 653 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
481 picks · 613 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
412 picks · 877 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
378 picks · 611 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
361 picks · 505 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
358 picks · 215 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% GamerLegion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:28
GamerLegion 47%Peru Rejects 53%
The model gave 53% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 52:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
47% · 240 games48% · 185 games
MedusaParker
Medusa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritRCY
54% · 150 games42% · 274 games
Queen of PainDarkMago
Queen of Pain
Lifestealer
LifestealerYamSun
50% · 94 games57% · 103 games
UnderlordFrank
Underlord
Batrider
BatriderSpeeed
48% · 263 games50% · 226 games
Shadow DemonElmisho
Shadow Demon
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBignum
50% · 120 games57% · 79 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed51:17
GamerLegion 44%Peru Rejects 56%
The model gave 56% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 41:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYamSun
46% · 274 games51% · 49 games
Anti-MageParker
Anti-Mage
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
46% · 516 games53% · 408 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierFayde
48% · 397 games58% · 402 games
Centaur WarrunnerFrank
Centaur Warrunner
Dazzle
DazzleSpeeed
50% · 161 game47% · 557 games
JakiroElmisho
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBignum
47% · 297 games54% · 229 games
MarciScofield
Marci
Game 3prediction correct9:26
GamerLegion 46%Peru Rejects 54%
The model gave 54% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 26:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarRCY
53% · 74 games44% · 133 games
MorphlingParker
Morphling
Ursa
UrsaYamSun
55% · 240 games44% · 178 games
SlardarDarkMago
Slardar
Razor
RazorFayde
49% · 63 games42% · 109 games
UnderlordFrank
Underlord
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBignum
60% · 73 games56% · 189 games
Shadow ShamanElmisho
Shadow Shaman
Jakiro
JakiroSpeeed
50% · 471 game46% · 312 games
TinyScofield
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 54%
Series resultPeru Rejects 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3