Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
GateKeptwin 2:0series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CCAPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GateKept
Rubick
Chen · 2 games
Silenceroften banned
CHAAANNN · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
JP · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
JP · 1 game
Clinkzoften banned
Chen · 1 game
Disruptor
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
JP · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Chen · 1 game
CAP
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
719 picks · 602 bans
Disruptor
557 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1061 bans
Doom
423 picks · 720 bans
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 1004 bans
Tiny
388 picks · 369 bans
Mirana
378 picks · 203 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 815 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% GateKept
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% CAP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:10
GateKept 36%CAP 64%
The model gave 64% on CAP — the game was taken by GateKept in 31:16.
Game 2prediction missed38:17
GateKept 36%CAP 64%
The model gave 64% on CAP — the game was taken by GateKept in 31:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteCAP · 64%
Series resultGateKept 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2