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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
GateKeptwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fart Studiosloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GateKept

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Chen · 3 games
100%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
CHAAANNN · 3 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Chen · 2 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
JP · 1 game
100%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
JP · 1 game
0%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Chen · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
CHAAANNN · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
JP · 1 game
100%

Fart Studios

Rubick
Rubick
Newsham · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
iAnnihilate · 11 games
45%
Lina
Linasignature
iAnnihilate · 7 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Jenkins · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Sonic · 6 games
83%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
BSJ · 6 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Jenkins · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Newsham · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
709 picks · 598 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 488 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
442 picks · 1074 bans
57%
Doom
Doom
427 picks · 747 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 1011 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
380 picks · 364 bans
53%
Mirana
Mirana
374 picks · 202 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 821 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 29%
Hero pool strength52% GateKept
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% GateKept
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:29
GateKept 55%Fart Studios 45%
The model gave 55% on GateKept — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 41:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingJP
56% · 142 games49% · 99 games
Dragon KnightBSJ
Dragon Knight
Techies
TechiesChen
50% · 61 game53% · 112 games
Batridermonkeys-forever
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorCHAAANNN
53% · 196 games37% · 11 games
ClinkzNewsham
Clinkz
41% · 177 games
ClockwerkJenkins
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct22:3
GateKept 54%Fart Studios 46%
The model gave 54% on GateKept — the game was taken by GateKept in 16:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusJP
44% · 41 game47% · 18 games
Dark Seermonkeys-forever
Dark Seer
Techies
TechiesChen
59% · 42 games50% · 16 games
JuggernautBSJ
Juggernaut
Lich
LichCHAAANNN
52% · 29 games48% · 12 games
Earth SpiritNewsham
Earth Spirit
49% · 66 games
ClockwerkJenkins
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct34:24
GateKept 58%Fart Studios 42%
The model gave 58% on GateKept — the game was taken by GateKept in 37:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJP
58% · 105 games38% · 33 games
WindrangerBSJ
Windranger
Techies
TechiesChen
61% · 143 games37% · 47 games
Magnusmonkeys-forever
Magnus
Lich
LichCHAAANNN
54% · 78 games43% · 174 games
RubickNewsham
Rubick
48% · 72 games
SilencerJenkins
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteGateKept · 61%
Series resultGateKept 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3