DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Geek Fam
Miranasignature
Skem · 11 games
Lifestealersignature
Natsumi · 9 games
Morphlingsignature
Natsumi · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Skem · 8 games
Lion
Skem · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 7 games
Vengeful Spirit
Jing · 7 games
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
386 picks · 632 bans
Lion
379 picks · 352 bans
Mars
371 picks · 597 bans
Techies
370 picks · 304 bans
Batrider
351 picks · 760 bans
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 347 bans
Tiny
339 picks · 377 bans
Hoodwink
331 picks · 200 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% Geek Fam
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total52% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:30
Geek Fam 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 48:09.
Game 2prediction missed10:28
Geek Fam 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 52%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2