ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Geek Fam
Dark Seersignature
Force · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 8 games
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 8 games
Axe
Force · 6 games
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 6 games
Pugnasignature
Skem · 6 games
Svensignature
Ulnit · 6 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 6 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Dark Willow
225 picks · 101 bans
Grimstroke
224 picks · 262 bans
Vengeful Spirit
222 picks · 270 bans
Pangolier
191 picks · 411 bans
Treant Protector
190 picks · 408 bans
Phoenix
188 picks · 249 bans
Earth Spirit
173 picks · 272 bans
Sven
172 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% Geek Fam
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total51% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:21
Geek Fam 49%Blacklist International 51%
The model gave 51% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 48:36.
Game 2prediction missed32:16
Geek Fam 49%Blacklist International 51%
The model gave 51% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 47:13.
Game 3prediction missed34:28
Geek Fam 49%Blacklist International 51%
The model gave 51% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 1:01:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 51%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3