PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Geek Fam
Miranasignature
Skem · 11 games
Lifestealersignature
Natsumi · 9 games
Morphlingsignature
Natsumi · 9 games
Batridersignature
Jing · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Skem · 8 games
Lion
Skem · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 7 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
419 picks · 686 bans
Mars
399 picks · 645 bans
Lion
393 picks · 362 bans
Techies
393 picks · 323 bans
Tiny
381 picks · 462 bans
Batrider
379 picks · 839 bans
Vengeful Spirit
359 picks · 358 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 599 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Geek Fam
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total55% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:28
Geek Fam 55%Blacklist International 45%
The model gave 55% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 36:37.
Game 2prediction correct28:7
Geek Fam 55%Blacklist International 45%
The model gave 55% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 29:14.
Game 3prediction correct
Geek Fam 55%Blacklist International 45%
The model gave 55% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam.
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 55%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3