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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Mirana
Miranasignature
Skem · 13 games
62%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Skem · 12 games
75%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Natsumi · 11 games
82%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Natsumi · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jing · 9 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Mac · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 8 games
13%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 722 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 676 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
416 picks · 333 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
406 picks · 360 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
405 picks · 523 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
402 picks · 882 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
377 picks · 180 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
376 picks · 170 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Geek Fam
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total52% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:30
Geek Fam 52%Blacklist International 48%
The model gave 52% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 56:16.
Game 2prediction missed12:26
Geek Fam 52%Blacklist International 48%
The model gave 52% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 44:24.
Game 3prediction missed11:21
Geek Fam 52%Blacklist International 48%
The model gave 52% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 42:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 52%
Series resultBlacklist International 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3