Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bleed Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Geek Fam
Rubick
NARMAN · 19 games
Undyingsignature
ace12 · 15 games
Snapfire
NARMAN · 13 games
Tusksignature
NARMAN · 13 games
Marcisignature
NARMAN · 12 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Skem · 11 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Roddgeee · 10 games
Miranasignature
Roddgeee · 9 games
Bleed Esports
Disruptorsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
Rubick
PlayHard · 10 games
Tiny
Topson · 9 games
Undyingoften banned
Kuku · 9 games
Venomanceroften banned
Xepher · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kuku · 8 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Topson · 7 games
Slarksignature
JaCkky · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
788 picks · 535 bans
Tiny
563 picks · 401 bans
Tusk
535 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
529 picks · 576 bans
Nature's Prophet
434 picks · 711 bans
Death Prophet
403 picks · 793 bans
Snapfire
403 picks · 294 bans
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 837 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% Geek Fam
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:22
Geek Fam 57%Bleed Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 29:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomSkem
Shadow FiendJaCkky
Death ProphetForce
Lycaniceiceice
EnchantressJaunuel
RubickDJ
TuskNARMAN
UndyingDuBu
Game 2prediction missed23:23
Geek Fam 58%Bleed Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 1:11:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetForce
UrsaJaCkky
PudgeSkem
Lycaniceiceice
TuskNARMAN
SnapfireDJ
Crystal MaidenJaunuel
Elder TitanDuBu
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 64%
Series resultBleed Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2