Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Myth Avenue Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Geek Fam
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 12 games
Batridersignature
Force · 11 games
Dark Seersignature
Force · 11 games
Rubick
NARMAN · 11 games
Doomoften banned
Force · 9 games
Tusk
NARMAN · 9 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Skem · 8 games
Myth Avenue Gaming
Rubick
RR · 15 games
Tusksignature
Hishge · 15 games
Miranasignature
RR · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
xsilearn · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
xsilearn · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Meracle · 9 games
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 8 games
Magnussignature
zeal · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
698 picks · 489 bans
Doom
564 picks · 1094 bans
Techies
562 picks · 610 bans
Disruptor
560 picks · 501 bans
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1217 bans
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1037 bans
Enchantress
458 picks · 669 bans
Pangolier
456 picks · 912 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:8
Geek Fam 59%Myth Avenue Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 29:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaUlnit
Magnuszeal
Dark SeerForce
Monkey KingMeracle
MiranaSkem
Storm Spiritxsilearn
ClockwerkNARMAN
EnchantressPoloson
46% · 101 game
PugnaRR
Game 2prediction correct25:11
Geek Fam 58%Myth Avenue Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 37:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinUlnit
MorphlingMeracle
TimbersawForce
Puckxsilearn
PugnaNARMAN
Lycanzeal
Ancient ApparitionSkem
Keeper of the LightPoloson
48% · 143 games
UndyingRR
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 64%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2