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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Jing · 11 games
55%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 10 games
90%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jing · 8 games
75%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Mac · 6 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jing · 6 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Skem · 6 games
67%
Sven
Svensignature
Ulnit · 6 games
67%
Warlock
Warlock
Skem · 6 games
50%

Neon Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
JG · 10 games
50%
Techies
Techiessignature
Bombi · 7 games
86%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 6 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ken · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bombi · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 6 games
33%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JG · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
313 picks · 460 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
278 picks · 414 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
266 picks · 445 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
244 picks · 218 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
242 picks · 133 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
234 picks · 674 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
232 picks · 325 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
230 picks · 355 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Geek Fam
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total62% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:2
Geek Fam 56%Neon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 23:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNatsumi
46% · 145 games51% · 303 games
PangolierKen
Pangolier
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMac
53% · 56 games57% · 30 games
Night StalkerJG
Night Stalker
Batrider
BatriderJing
47% · 166 games50% · 173 games
Shadow DemonBombi
Shadow Demon
Enchantress
EnchantressSkem
47% · 139 games
Game 2prediction correct34:8
Geek Fam 53%Neon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 27:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNatsumi
46% · 78 games51% · 147 games
Ember SpiritKen
Ember Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaMac
58% · 84 games46% · 155 games
Centaur WarrunnerJG
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
ChenSkem
52% · 66 games48% · 98 games
Keeper of the LightBombi
Keeper of the Light
Tusk
TuskJing
50% · 172 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 62%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2