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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Neon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Mirana
Miranasignature
Skem · 11 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Natsumi · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jing · 9 games
67%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Natsumi · 9 games
78%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Skem · 9 games
78%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Skem · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lion
Skem · 7 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 7 games
57%

Neon Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
JG · 15 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bombi · 11 games
36%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Bombi · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 7 games
57%
Techies
Techiessignature
Bombi · 7 games
86%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Bombi · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 704 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
410 picks · 664 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
407 picks · 325 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
399 picks · 361 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 497 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
389 picks · 862 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
364 picks · 160 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
364 picks · 359 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Geek Fam
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total68% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:17
Geek Fam 61%Neon Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 37:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNatsumi
61% · 142 games32% · 59 games
ZeusKen
Zeus
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBob
60% · 130 games46% · 214 games
MarsJG
Mars
Mirana
MiranaSkem
60% · 127 games46% · 275 games
TechiesBombi
Techies
Tiny
TinyJing
53% · 149 games
Game 2prediction missed38:41
Geek Fam 61%Neon Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 45:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNatsumi
52% · 110 games46% · 122 games
Templar AssassinKen
Templar Assassin
Leshrac
LeshracBob
55% · 57 games44% · 143 games
MarsJG
Mars
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkem
56% · 95 games42% · 143 games
HoodwinkBombi
Hoodwink
Tiny
TinyJing
61% · 146 games
Game 3prediction missed12:38
Geek Fam 60%Neon Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNatsumi
52% · 116 games52% · 121 game
Templar AssassinKen
Templar Assassin
Leshrac
LeshracBob
56% · 49 games50% · 165 games
Centaur WarrunnerJG
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskJing
50% · 103 games39% · 102 games
HoodwinkBombi
Hoodwink
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSkem
53% · 120 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 68%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3