Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Geek Fam
Rubicksignature
Hishge · 14 games
Snapfire
NARMAN · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 11 games
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 9 games
Tusksignature
NARMAN · 9 games
Marcisignature
Hishge · 8 games
Miranasignature
Roddgeee · 8 games
Skywrath Mage
ace12 · 8 games
Team SMG
Banesignature
Poloson · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 10 games
Magnusoften banned
MidOne · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
AhFu · 9 games
Queen of Painsignature
Moon · 7 games
Undyingoften banned
AhFu · 7 games
Marcioften banned
MidOne · 6 games
Primal Beastsignature
MidOne · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
388 picks · 377 bans
Tiny
345 picks · 353 bans
Rubick
322 picks · 226 bans
Mirana
282 picks · 282 bans
Snapfire
207 picks · 111 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 148 bans
Treant Protector
199 picks · 259 bans
Pangolier
190 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:16
Geek Fam 56%Team SMG 44%
The model gave 56% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Team SMG in 26:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightSkem
BroodmotherMidOne
BeastmasterForce
KunkkaMoon
HoodwinkNARMAN
Dark WillowBoomy
DisruptorRoddgeee
UndyingAhFu
Game 2prediction missed10:26
Geek Fam 57%Team SMG 43%
The model gave 57% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Team SMG in 38:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritSkem
DoomMidOne
BeastmasterForce
SlarkMoon
TuskNARMAN
HoodwinkBoomy
RubickRoddgeee
Keeper of the LightAhFu
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 61%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2