Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionGOGen of Miraclesloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ram Squadwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gen of Miracles
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Disruptor
Stoic · 1 game
Doomoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Earth Spirit
ChodΣX · 1 game
Grimstroke
Stoic · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
Stoic · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
Stoic · 1 game
Ram Squad
Beastmasteroften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
Doomoften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
canceL^^ · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Puckoften banned
canceL^^ · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
canceL^^ · 1 game
Rubick
w33 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
737 picks · 616 bans
Disruptor
554 picks · 484 bans
Beastmaster
428 picks · 1039 bans
Doom
404 picks · 674 bans
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 987 bans
Tiny
398 picks · 374 bans
Undying
393 picks · 610 bans
Mirana
382 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Ram Squad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Gen of Miracles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:35
Gen of Miracles 50%Ram Squad 50%
The model gave 50% on Ram Squad — the game was taken by Ram Squad in 58:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerChodΣX
SvenkAAN
ClockwerkStoic
Spirit BreakerBliNcc
57% · 128 games
PangoliercanceL^^
little data
Clinkzw33
46% · 31 game
IoFlash
Game 2prediction correct39:49
Gen of Miracles 48%Ram Squad 52%
The model gave 52% on Ram Squad — the game was taken by Ram Squad in 50:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ogre MagiChodΣX
DoomBliNcc
LichStoic
Monkey KingkAAN
58% · 35 games
Ember SpiritcanceL^^
68% · 14 games
Techiesw33
36% · 12 games
Winter WyvernFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteGen of Miracles · 53%
Series resultRam Squad 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2