Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Ghost frogswin 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Cascade Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ghost frogs
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Tobi · 3 games
Earth Spirit
MiLAN · 3 games
Grimstroke
j4 · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 3 games
Mirana
MiLAN · 3 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 2 games
Underlordoften banned
Tobi · 2 games
Cascade Esports
Rubick
jAMES · 10 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Shisui · 7 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 7 games
Gyrocopter
Zitraks · 4 games
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
Mirana
jAMES · 4 games
Oracleoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
447 picks · 985 bans
Void Spirit
427 picks · 588 bans
Death Prophet
370 picks · 697 bans
Mars
351 picks · 607 bans
Earth Spirit
326 picks · 303 bans
Grimstroke
289 picks · 257 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 183 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 397 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 43%
Hero pool strength61% Ghost frogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Ghost frogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:34
Ghost frogs 67%Cascade Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 29:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaBor@nija
Shadow FiendShisui
Wraith KingCrystallis
Faceless Void7jesu
Centaur WarrunnerTobi
Vengeful Spiritrostislav_999
PudgeMiLAN
Shadow ShamanKaori
Grimstrokej4
Crystal MaidenKidaro
Game 2prediction correct49:25
Ghost frogs 68%Cascade Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 48:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterBor@nija
Monkey King7jesu
Phantom LancerCrystallis
RubickShisui
RazorTobi
Magnusrostislav_999
Winter Wyvernj4
Shadow ShamanKaori
TinyMiLAN
Crystal MaidenKidaro
Game 3prediction correct45:19
Ghost frogs 66%Cascade Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 32:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinBor@nija
Drow Ranger7jesu
SpectreCrystallis
Shadow FiendShisui
Dark SeerTobi
Vengeful Spiritrostislav_999
LinaMiLAN
PangolierKaori
Warlockj4
BaneKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteGhost frogs · 79%
Series resultGhost frogs 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3