Ghost frogs vs Into The Breach — prediction DPC2S—Е2Д 2 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3

result vs prediction

Ghost frogswin 2:1

series probability

67%33%

probability at match start · final 2:1

Into The Breachloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ghost frogs

Death Prophetoften banned

Tobi · 3 games

67%

Marsoften banned

Bor@nija · 3 games

100%

Bloodseekeroften banned

Crystallis · 2 games

50%

Earth Spirit

MiLAN · 2 games

50%

Grimstroke

j4 · 2 games

50%

Juggernautoften banned

Crystallis · 2 games

100%

Mirana

MiLAN · 2 games

50%

Underlordoften banned

Tobi · 2 games

50%

Into The Breach

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

435 picks · 953 bans

53%

Void Spirit

411 picks · 582 bans

53%

Death Prophet

362 picks · 672 bans

57%

Mars

334 picks · 589 bans

53%

Earth Spirit

307 picks · 279 bans

50%

Tusk

271 picks · 180 bans

51%

Phoenix

261 picks · 379 bans

61%

Grimstroke

256 picks · 222 bans

45%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)77% vs 56%

Hero pool strength55% Ghost frogs

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total67% Ghost frogs

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed16:30

Ghost frogs 67%Into The Breach 33%

The model gave 67% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 28:15.

Game 2prediction correct25:8

Ghost frogs 67%Into The Breach 33%

The model gave 67% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 30:23.

Game 3prediction correct43:21

Ghost frogs 67%Into The Breach 33%

The model gave 67% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 50:37.

Model check result

Model favoriteGhost frogs · 67%

Series resultGhost frogs 2:1

Series predictioncorrect

Accuracy by game2 of 3