Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ghost frogswin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Bald Rebornloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ghost frogs
Grimstroke
j4 · 4 games
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Tobi · 3 games
Earth Spirit
MiLAN · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 3 games
Mirana
MiLAN · 3 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 2 games
Centaur Warrunner
Tobi · 2 games
Team Bald Reborn
Juggernautoften banned
Gorgc · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Rajjix · 2 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Excalibur · 1 game
Brewmaster
5up · 1 game
Earth Spirit
Pablo · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
5up · 1 game
Grimstroke
Pablo · 1 game
Hoodwink
Rajjix · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
441 picks · 982 bans
Void Spirit
419 picks · 584 bans
Death Prophet
364 picks · 702 bans
Mars
346 picks · 605 bans
Earth Spirit
317 picks · 307 bans
Grimstroke
298 picks · 260 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 188 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 400 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Ghost frogs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Ghost frogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:19
Ghost frogs 60%Team Bald Reborn 40%
The model gave 60% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerCrystallis
LinaExcalibur
Storm SpiritBor@nija
Bounty HunterGorgc
SlardarTobi
Legion CommanderRajjix
MiranaMiLAN
Pangolier5up
Banej4
GrimstrokePablo
Game 2prediction correct27:3
Ghost frogs 63%Team Bald Reborn 37%
The model gave 63% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 27:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautCrystallis
PuckExcalibur
Dragon KnightBor@nija
Phantom AssassinGorgc
AxeTobi
TidehunterRajjix
MiranaMiLAN
Lina5up
Disruptorj4
SnapfirePablo
Model check result
Model favoriteGhost frogs · 69%
Series resultGhost frogs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2