Чемпионат России 2023 по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs predictionG2gigateam 2.0win 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MCASTloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
gigateam 2.0
No games played over 6 months.
MCAST
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
740 picks · 608 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 477 bans
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1023 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 973 bans
Tiny
398 picks · 375 bans
Doom
397 picks · 654 bans
Undying
393 picks · 606 bans
Mirana
378 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% gigateam 2.0
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% MCAST
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:14
gigateam 2.0 50%MCAST 50%
The model gave 50% on MCAST — the game was taken by gigateam 2.0 in 30:43.
Game 2prediction correct32:7
gigateam 2.0 50%MCAST 50%
The model gave 50% on MCAST — the game was taken by MCAST in 35:34.
Game 3prediction missed21:15
gigateam 2.0 50%MCAST 50%
The model gave 50% on MCAST — the game was taken by gigateam 2.0 in 32:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteMCAST · 50%
Series resultgigateam 2.0 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3