DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GLYPH
Phoenixsignature
NARMAN · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
zeal · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Emo · 4 games
Hoodwink
Jhocam · 4 games
Jakirooften banned
NARMAN · 3 games
Kezoften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
Largooften banned
zeal · 3 games
REKONIX
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 18 games
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 12 games
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 10 games
Phoenix
Varizh · 10 games
Muertasignature
dalul · 9 games
Kezsignature
TraVins · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
642 picks · 695 bans
Tiny
520 picks · 455 bans
Tusk
496 picks · 416 bans
Warlock
433 picks · 290 bans
Phoenix
422 picks · 407 bans
Shadow Demon
401 picks · 1104 bans
Puck
393 picks · 844 bans
Mars
382 picks · 570 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% GLYPH
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% GLYPH
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:10
GLYPH 55%REKONIX 45%
The model gave 55% on GLYPH — the game was taken by GLYPH in 35:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidEmo
Monkey KinginYourdreaM
KezJaCkky
SlarkTraVins
Tidehunterzeal
UnderlordFbz
IoNARMAN
Grimstrokedalul
RingmasterJhocam
PhoenixVarizh
Game 2prediction missed9:27
GLYPH 55%REKONIX 45%
The model gave 55% on GLYPH — the game was taken by REKONIX in 33:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinJaCkky
LunaTraVins
Queen of PainEmo
Ember SpiritinYourdreaM
Tidehunterzeal
SlardarFbz
PhoenixNARMAN
Iodalul
Shadow DemonJhocam
Ogre MagiVarizh
Game 3prediction missed22:27
GLYPH 57%REKONIX 43%
The model gave 57% on GLYPH — the game was taken by REKONIX in 47:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritEmo
BristlebackFbz
BeastmasterJaCkky
TinyTraVins
Largozeal
PuckinYourdreaM
PugnaNARMAN
Rubickdalul
LionJhocam
PhoenixVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteGLYPH · 58%
Series resultREKONIX 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3