Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionGYGo youngloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lavawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Go young
No games played over 6 months.
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 310 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 261 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
237 picks · 513 bans
Primal Beast
222 picks · 557 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 320 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 119 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Go young
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:37
Go young 35%Lava 65%
The model gave 65% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 19:34.
Game 2prediction correct27:14
Go young 35%Lava 65%
The model gave 65% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 24:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 65%
Series resultLava 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2