DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionGGOBURRRrrrloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GRIN esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GOBURRRrrr
No games played over 6 months.
GRIN esports
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Arms · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Arms · 1 game
Treant Protectoroften banned
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
266 picks · 444 bans
Phoenix
242 picks · 385 bans
Centaur Warrunner
235 picks · 315 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 203 bans
Treant Protector
194 picks · 367 bans
Nature's Prophet
191 picks · 477 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% GOBURRRrrr
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% GOBURRRrrr
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:54
GOBURRRrrr 50%GRIN esports 50%
The model gave 50% on GOBURRRrrr — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 31:28.
Game 2prediction missed30:44
GOBURRRrrr 50%GRIN esports 50%
The model gave 50% on GOBURRRrrr — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 38:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteGOBURRRrrr · 50%
Series resultGRIN esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2