FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Открытая квалификация · BO3
result vs predictionGBGolden Barysloss 1:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1R1000 reasonswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Golden Barys
Lion
ArrOw · 2 games
Skywrath Mage
ArrOw · 2 games
Tusk
ArrOw · 1 game
1000 reasons
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
Disruptor
Krinzhik · 1 game
Muerta
islA · 1 game
Void Spirit
islA · 1 game
Warlock
Krinzhik · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
532 picks · 779 bans
Tusk
497 picks · 345 bans
Dragon Knight
460 picks · 637 bans
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 558 bans
Shadow Demon
375 picks · 694 bans
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 566 bans
Mars
342 picks · 460 bans
Slardar
320 picks · 891 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 56%
Hero pool strength61% Golden Barys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% 1000 reasons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:43
Golden Barys 40%1000 reasons 60%
The model gave 60% on 1000 reasons — the game was taken by 1000 reasons in 42:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TuskArrOw
PhoenixMTD
46% · 72 games
TidehunterMinD_ContRoL
53% · 131 game
WarlockNagato
53% · 100 games
Shadow ShamanislA
Game 2prediction missed42:13
Golden Barys 47%1000 reasons 53%
The model gave 53% on 1000 reasons — the game was taken by Golden Barys in 27:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LionArrOw
Centaur WarrunnerMinD_ContRoL
59% · 18 games
Queen of PainMTD
44% · 14 games
Void SpiritislA
45% · 16 games
RingmasterNagato
Game 3prediction correct24:55
Golden Barys 47%1000 reasons 53%
The model gave 53% on 1000 reasons — the game was taken by 1000 reasons in 37:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LionArrOw
UnderlordMinD_ContRoL
60% · 6 games
KunkkaMTD
52% · 23 games
BatriderislA
47% · 30 games
ClockwerkNagato
Model check result
Model favorite1000 reasons · 66%
Series result1000 reasons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3