Golden Barys vs Paseka Team — prediction FUE8ОК · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Открытая квалификация · BO1

result vs prediction

GBGolden Baryswin 1:0

series probability

42%58%

probability at match start · final 1:0

Paseka Teamloss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Golden Barys

Lion

ArrOw · 4 games

75%

Skywrath Mage

ArrOw · 2 games

50%

Tusk

ArrOw · 2 games

Paseka Team

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

540 picks · 798 bans

50%

Tusk

502 picks · 357 bans

47%

Dragon Knight

463 picks · 639 bans

51%

Centaur Warrunner

452 picks · 566 bans

55%

Shadow Demon

380 picks · 719 bans

54%

Gyrocopter

357 picks · 566 bans

50%

Mars

342 picks · 468 bans

49%

Slardar

325 picks · 913 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength52% Golden Barys

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total58% Paseka Team

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed32:26

Golden Barys 44%Paseka Team 56%

The model gave 56% on Paseka Team — the game was taken by Golden Barys in 38:21.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo