Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
goonswin 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
WWojtekloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
goons
Nyx Assassinoften banned
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 1 game
Wojtek
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
788 picks · 530 bans
Tiny
560 picks · 404 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 438 bans
Treant Protector
530 picks · 572 bans
Nature's Prophet
430 picks · 706 bans
Snapfire
400 picks · 294 bans
Death Prophet
398 picks · 782 bans
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 828 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% goons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Wojtek
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:30
goons 43%Wojtek 57%
The model gave 57% on Wojtek — the game was taken by Wojtek in 40:58.
Game 2prediction missed45:14
goons 43%Wojtek 57%
The model gave 57% on Wojtek — the game was taken by goons in 28:20.
Game 3prediction missed41:22
goons 43%Wojtek 57%
The model gave 57% on Wojtek — the game was taken by goons in 33:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteWojtek · 57%
Series resultgoons 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3