ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Goonsquadwin 1:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:0
11Monkeyzloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
582 picks · 441 bans
Puck
411 picks · 884 bans
Mars
379 picks · 589 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 473 bans
Snapfire
348 picks · 179 bans
Bane
324 picks · 216 bans
Dawnbreaker
302 picks · 362 bans
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 574 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Goonsquad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Goonsquad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:35
Goonsquad 67%11Monkeyz 33%
The model gave 67% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 39:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteGoonsquad · 67%
Series resultGoonsquad 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1