ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Goonsquadwin 1:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
HellRaisersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
584 picks · 445 bans
Puck
412 picks · 889 bans
Mars
379 picks · 590 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 474 bans
Snapfire
349 picks · 179 bans
Bane
324 picks · 216 bans
Dawnbreaker
306 picks · 363 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 576 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Goonsquad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:33
Goonsquad 45%HellRaisers 55%
The model gave 55% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 45:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 55%
Series resultGoonsquad 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1