Streamers League #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gorgc Teamwin 2:0series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nix Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gorgc Team
Puckoften banned
Excalibur · 4 games
Axeoften banned
sheepsticked · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Gorgc · 3 games
Snapfire
SingSing · 3 games
Tinkeroften banned
Excalibur · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
sheepsticked · 3 games
Baneoften banned
pieliedie · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 2 games
Nix Team
Techies
alagon · 4 games
Dark Willow
alagon · 3 games
Spirit Breaker
ct0m · 3 games
Windranger
Nix · 3 games
Bloodseeker
Cooman · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
bowbowbow · 2 games
Centaur Warrunner
bowbowbow · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
bowbowbow · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
517 picks · 337 bans
Dark Willow
447 picks · 241 bans
Mirana
402 picks · 182 bans
Winter Wyvern
354 picks · 325 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 510 bans
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 292 bans
Windranger
293 picks · 132 bans
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 513 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 67%
Hero pool strength60% Nix Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Nix Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:9
Gorgc Team 34%Nix Team 66%
The model gave 66% on Nix Team — the game was taken by Gorgc Team in 30:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawGunnar
PangoliergpK~
Lone DruidGorgc
SvenNix
LargoSabeRLight-
Enigmabowbowbow
LionJenik
Techiesalagon
Dark WillowMarcus Time
Hoodwinkelmo
Game 2prediction missed47:17
Gorgc Team 33%Nix Team 67%
The model gave 67% on Nix Team — the game was taken by Gorgc Team in 35:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawGunnar
LunaNix
UrsaGorgc
Dark Seerbowbowbow
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Earth SpiritgpK~
RingmasterJenik
Rubickelmo
Dark WillowMarcus Time
Techiesalagon
Model check result
Model favoriteNix Team · 78%
Series resultGorgc Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2