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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Gorillaz-Pridewin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inverseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gorillaz-Pride

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Cara · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
d1smar · 4 games
25%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Cara · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaO · 4 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 3 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
TaO · 2 games
50%

Inverse

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Slaw · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
DM · 2 games
0%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
DM · 2 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
100%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
DM · 1 game
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
0%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
279 picks · 559 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
251 picks · 315 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
219 picks · 400 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
209 picks · 163 bans
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
183 picks · 328 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
179 picks · 562 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
176 picks · 206 bans
58%
Wraith King
Wraith King
176 picks · 229 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Gorillaz-Pride
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:25
Gorillaz-Pride 58%Inverse 42%
The model gave 58% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderTaO
55% · 7 games38% · 36 games
GrimstrokeSlaw
Grimstroke
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBenjaz
58% · 8 games
Disruptor
DisruptorCara
67% · 5 games
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassind1smar
65% · 16 games
Game 2prediction correct26:24
Gorillaz-Pride 57%Inverse 43%
The model gave 57% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 35:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBenjaz
73% · 7 games49% · 21 game
Witch DoctorSlaw
Witch Doctor
Monkey King
Monkey KingTaO
56% · 5 games
Rubick
Rubickd1smar
31% · 9 games
Lion
LionCara
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteGorillaz-Pride · 60%
Series resultGorillaz-Pride 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2