Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Gorillaz-Prideloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mad Kingswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gorillaz-Pride
Tusksignature
Genek · 8 games
Snapfire
d1smar · 7 games
Banesignature
Genek · 6 games
Hoodwink
d1smar · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Genek · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
NaoG · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
TaO · 4 games
Linaoften banned
TaO · 4 games
Mad Kings
Marssignature
Frank · 10 games
Ogre Magisignature
Mjz · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
Frank · 9 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mnz · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
Rubick
MoOz · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
458 picks · 628 bans
Bane
439 picks · 268 bans
Tiny
439 picks · 431 bans
Sand King
409 picks · 559 bans
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 623 bans
Dragon Knight
386 picks · 469 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 545 bans
Keeper of the Light
328 picks · 639 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Gorillaz-Pride
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:26
Gorillaz-Pride 49%Mad Kings 51%
The model gave 51% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 24:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerNaoG
Wraith KingAdrx
InvokerTaO
Death ProphetArzenT
HoodwinkZxca
BaneYadomi
Game 2prediction correct32:45
Gorillaz-Pride 48%Mad Kings 52%
The model gave 52% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 37:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracTaO
WeaverAdrx
Chaos KnightNaoG
Death ProphetArzenT
TinyZxca
Shadow DemonYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteGorillaz-Pride · 50%
Series resultMad Kings 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2