Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO1
result vs prediction
Gorillaz-Prideloss 0:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:1
South Teamwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gorillaz-Pride
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Genek · 6 games
Pucksignature
TaO · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
TaO · 5 games
Tiny
Zxca · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
TaO · 5 games
Bane
Yadomi · 4 games
Clockwerk
Yadomi · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
TaO · 4 games
South Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
589 picks · 452 bans
Mars
412 picks · 634 bans
Puck
406 picks · 860 bans
Dragon Knight
392 picks · 499 bans
Bane
364 picks · 245 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 168 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 607 bans
Pangolier
303 picks · 529 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% South Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Gorillaz-Pride
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:23
Gorillaz-Pride 52%South Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by South Team in 34:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteGorillaz-Pride · 52%
Series resultSouth Team 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1